581
FXUS64 KMAF 100844
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
344 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
- A COOLING TREND IS IN STORE FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (10-30%
CHANCE) EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
THE PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE CARBON COPIES OF EACH OTHER. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY AND PWATS DECREASE TO BELOW
AN INCH. IN RESPONSE, THE ALREADY LOW(<10%) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN DECREASE FURTHER. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. HIGHS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST.
LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST WITH THE MOUNTAINS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, AS PERSISTENCE RULES.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NUDGING EAST, COURTESY OF AN
INCOMING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN, RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PRECIPITATE A GRADUAL,
DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGHS INTO NEXT WEEK AS THICKNESSES DECREASE.
HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD COME IN 3-5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY, THE PACNW TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AS IT PIVOTS UP INTO
CANADA, AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, PERPETUATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION.
THE NET EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL, IF NOT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER.
LOWS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BUMP ALONG ~ 4-7 F ABOVE NORMAL, COURTESY
OF A 25-30 KT LLJ DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK SLIM-TO-NONEUNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST INTO THE
AREA WHERE SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO MORE OR LESS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. UNFORTUNATELY, QPF REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR CONTINUES FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTS DECREASE TONIGHT AND RETURN
DURING THE DAY TODAY(TUESDAY). OTHERWISE, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND 10-15KTS PREVAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 94 65 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 95 63 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 92 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 94 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 87 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 92 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 87 55 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 93 65 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 92 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 94 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93
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