643
FXUS64 KMAF 110514
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- WARM AND DRY INTO LATE WEEK, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MORE
HUMID, SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE (15%-30%) PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX INTO SE NM PLAINS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT, BUT NOTABLE COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. DESPITE THIS, NO MAJOR COOLDOWN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM. EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS, ALLOWING FOR AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING. WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S F, MID TO UPPER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MID TO UPPER 90S
F OVER UPPER TRANS PECOS AND ALONG PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND 100S F +
BIG BEND. NEAR ZERO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
YESTERDAY EXPECTED, AS LEE TROUGHING AND ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, AND MID TO UPPER RIDGING
ALOFT PROVIDES LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S F, MID 40S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS
ALSO PREVAIL. TONIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO MID TO UPPER 60S F, MID TO
UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY, AND LOWER 70S
F ALONG RIO GRANDE. TOMORROW, THE QUIET, WARM, AND DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS, WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO TODAY, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PARTS OF THE SE NM PLAINS.
TOMORROW NIGHT, LOWS AGAIN FALL TO SIMILAR VALUES FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT DESPITE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AS INTERMITTENTLY
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN A LLJ DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF MARFA PLATEAU, AND ALLOW TRANSPORT OF WARMER
AIR INTO THOSE REGIONS THAT COUNTERACTS OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL AGAIN TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER, MORE HUMID,
AND CLOUDIER. WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGING HOLDS, MODELS SHOW IT
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST, ALLOWING NEAR SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW TO DEVELOP EAST CLOSER TO THE
AREA. THIS PROVIDES INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT. COUPLED WITH A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPING INTO THE TX PH INTO SE NM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S F, 50S F WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN BY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY, TRANSLATING TO MID 80S F TO LOWER 90S F,
MID TO UPPER 90S F UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND 100
F+ PERSISTING FOR THE BIG BEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIMITING
OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEPS LOWS IN MID 60S F TO LOWER 70S
F RANGE APART FROM UPPER 50S F FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MARFA
PLATEAU. LOW TO MODERATE (20%-35%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DAVIS
MOUNTAINS INTO MOST OF SE NM PLAINS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SE NM
PLAINS, DUE TO INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND ADVANCING LEE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND MESOSCALE TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LIMITING SOLAR HEATING WILL
AGAIN KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S F TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH LOWS LIKEWISE FALLING INTO THE MID 60S F TO LOWER 70S F
RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES AND LARGEST SOURCE
OF NEAR SURFACE FORCING SHIFTS TO LEE TROUGHING OVER SE NM AND
SURFACE LOW(S) OVER WESTERNMOST TX, WESTERNMOST EDDY COUNTY INTO
CULBERSON COUNTY AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHEST
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DUE TO HAVING CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THESE
FEATURES. DESPITE MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND LITTLE PROGRESS OF COLD
FRONTS BEING ABLE TO CLEAR THE AREA, EVEN CLOUDIER SKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEP HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S F FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID WEEK, WITH LOWS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
50S F BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING, AND MODELS AND LOWER PERCENTILE ENSEMBLES INDICATING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL APART FROM A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OVER MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS, WE
CANNOT YET CONCLUDE WHETHER THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN OR
ANY FLOODING AS SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 64 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 30
DRYDEN 67 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 62 84 64 83 / 0 0 10 40
HOBBS 61 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 20
MARFA 55 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 65 91 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10
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