722
FXUS64 KMAF 112307
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO
MODERATE (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES. BEST (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST
TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VIS/IR SATELLITE AGAIN SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, APART FROM SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID TO UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION OVER THE AREA, AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TX WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
EVENING WHEN CORE OF SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE EAST, AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, LOWER TO MID
90S F, MID TO UPPER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MID TO UPPER 90S F
ALONG PRESIDIO VALLEY AND OVER UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND 100 F +
READINGS FOR THE BIG BEND. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT KEEP LOWS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
WELL, MID TO UPPER 60S F, MID TO UPPER 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY, AND LOWER TO MID 70S F ALONG RIO GRANDE.
FRIDAY, CLOUDIER SKIES LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S F TO LOWER 90S F, WITH MID TO UPPER 90S F
REMAINING ACROSS UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS
100 F + READINGS FOR THE BIG BEND. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING, RESULTING IN LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, IN THE UPPER 60S F TO LOWER 70S F, AND UPPER 50S F
TO MID 60S F USUAL COOLER SPOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST ALLOWING LEE TROUGHING OVER SE NM
AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, LOW TO MODERATE (15% TO 30%) RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SE NM PLAINS INTO
GUADALUPES. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE HUMID WEATHER, ARE ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. IN ITS PLACE, AN UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY.
OUR REGION LOOKS TO LIE UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL, THE TROUGH
ALLOWS AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM NEAR NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH MORNING LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE APPROACHING TROUGH BRINGS AN
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, RANGING BETWEEN 20-60% ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST (40-60%) ODDS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN, BECOMING 10-40% ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART, THOUGH MOST LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAIN
LOW (10-20%) EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR PREVAILING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 66 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 64 91 68 87 / 0 0 10 60
DRYDEN 68 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 66 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS 62 83 63 79 / 0 10 10 50
HOBBS 62 88 65 85 / 0 0 0 40
MARFA 56 85 59 82 / 0 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 66 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 65 91 68 88 / 0 0 0 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page