895
FXUS64 KMAF 121702
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO
MODERATE (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES. BEST (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST
TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WESTERN U.S. THE HIGH
OVER TEXAS WILL EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER TODAY KEEPING
TEMPS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
THE LOW TO THE WEST MOVES EAST TOMORROW, INCREASING MOISTURE IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY (30-60%) FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH TO THE
BIG BEND.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS PUSHES THE
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THOUGH COVERAGE
DIMINISHES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS GET FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA. A VERY BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE WEAK RIDGE ALLOWS FOR MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH BASED
AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT IF ANY.
UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS MONDAY AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OTHER AREAS FARTHER EAST SHOULD SEE AN
AFTERNOON ALTOCUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD REPEAT
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVENTING SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING BUT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS, BECOMING GUSTY AT OR ABOVE 15-20 KNOTS
BY 19Z-23Z FRIDAY, THEN DECREASING BELOW 15 KNOTS BY 06Z-09Z
SATURDAY. WINDS AGAIN FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT OR
ABOVE 15-20 KNOTS 14Z SATURDAY INTO END OF PERIOD, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FOR TERMINALS
ACROSS SE NM PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS 12Z-14Z INTO END OF
PERIOD. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS IN REGIONS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOR TERMINALS ACROSS SE NM PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS AFTER 12Z-14Z SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 91 69 88 / 0 10 20 20
CARLSBAD 67 86 65 89 / 10 60 50 20
DRYDEN 70 91 71 91 / 0 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 68 89 68 90 / 0 20 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS 64 79 62 81 / 10 60 50 20
HOBBS 64 84 64 86 / 0 50 50 20
MARFA 59 81 59 83 / 10 40 30 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 68 90 70 89 / 0 10 20 20
ODESSA 68 88 69 88 / 0 20 30 20
WINK 68 88 68 90 / 0 40 40 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94
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