400
FXUS64 KMAF 130522
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20%-45%) PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE NM PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS SATURDAY MORNING,
EXPANDING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TO
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST
STORMS, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY (25%-40%) OF RAIN AT
LEAST 0.25" TO 0.50" FOR SE NM PLAINS INTO MARFA PLATEAU.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES CAN BE FOUND IN AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS.
- SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F INTO LOWER 90S F FOR
MOST OF THE AREA PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS END THE WEEK AND GO INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST, LEADING TO
INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S F TO LOWER 90S F, MID
90S F UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY, WITH UPPER 90S F TO 100
F + READINGS ONLY ACROSS THE BIG BEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING, KEEPS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID TO UPPER
60S F TO LOWER 70S F, UPPER 50S F TO LOWER 60S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TONIGHT.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MODELS SHOW BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID TO UPPER RIDGING REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS,
ALLOWING LEE TROUGHING AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST. INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO LOW TO MEDIUM (20%-40%) PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE NM PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS BY SATURDAY MORNING,
EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN (30%-50%)
INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TO PRESIDIO VALLEY (20%-35%) BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS INDICATE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS, WHILE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH TROUGHING AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAIN GREATEST
ACROSS SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY REMAINS WEAK, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS A LOW BUT NONZERO
CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. AS A RESULT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY, HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S F TO LOWER 90S F RANGE, MID 90S F TO 100 F +
NEAR THE BIG BEND ARE ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL OF AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ARE INDICATED FOR MARFA PLATEAU INTO SE NM PLAINS,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN EDDY COUNTY INTO NORTHERN LEA COUNTY WHERE THERE
IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (25-40%) PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.25" TO 0.50"
OF RAIN. WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REDEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TAPER OFF AS THEY SHIFT TO CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU. HOWEVER, REMAINING CLOUD COVER
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE - AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S F TO LOWER 60S F - KEEP LOWS AT OR A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
CONTINUED "COOL" TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK: READ THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DEPARTS, OUR RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE LOW TO MEDIUM (10-
50%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES CAN BE FOUND
IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY AFTERNOON
SEES LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY, A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM OUR
SOUTHWEST. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. MORNING LOWS SHALL MAINLY DIP INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS SUCH, HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE -TSRA PROB30S FOR CNM, HOB, PEQ, AND INK. THESE
SITES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 69 89 67 / 10 30 30 10
CARLSBAD 86 66 90 65 / 60 60 20 10
DRYDEN 91 72 91 70 / 10 10 30 10
FORT STOCKTON 89 69 90 67 / 30 30 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 79 62 82 63 / 50 60 20 10
HOBBS 84 64 87 63 / 50 70 20 10
MARFA 83 60 83 59 / 50 40 50 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 70 89 68 / 10 40 30 10
ODESSA 88 69 89 68 / 20 40 30 10
WINK 88 69 90 67 / 30 50 30 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55
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