391
FXUS64 KMAF 131725
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20%-60%) PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TO THE BIG BEND TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES CAN BE FOUND IN AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK ECHOES APPROACHING EDDY AND CULBERSON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH MODELS SHOW
THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACTIVITY. THEREFORE GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ONE OR TWO OUTLIERS THAT COULD BECOME
STRONG. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT
MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS DOWN TO THE BIG BEND WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL
STRUGGLE TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY DESPITE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OTHER LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SEE THEIR RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER IN
THE WEEK FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT TIMING, STRENGTH, AND
LOCATION ARE SO VARIED THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT SHOWN IN THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
OVER WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK PREVENTS MUCH VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES
WITH THE 80S TO LOW 90S REPEATING EACH DAY.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TODAY. SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY EVIDENT AT/AROUND HOB, INK, PEQ, AND FST. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MAF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DROPS TO MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 70 87 67 / 10 20 50 20
CARLSBAD 86 65 89 65 / 60 50 20 10
DRYDEN 92 72 89 70 / 10 10 40 10
FORT STOCKTON 90 69 89 67 / 30 20 60 10
GUADALUPE PASS 79 61 81 62 / 70 50 20 10
HOBBS 84 64 86 63 / 50 50 30 10
MARFA 82 60 82 59 / 50 40 60 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 70 88 68 / 10 30 50 20
ODESSA 88 69 87 67 / 10 30 50 10
WINK 88 68 89 66 / 30 50 40 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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