337
FXUS64 KMAF 140531
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-70 PERCENT
CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, MUCH OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/
MARFA PLATEAU THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
REGION OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.4-1.6 INCHES) EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION, GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS, VAN HORN
CORRIDOR, MARFA PLATEAU, AND WESTERN BIG BEND REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THIS
ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS, INCLUDING THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU REGION, AS WELL AS AROUND TATUM IN
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RESULTANT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME. SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE THE
COMPLEX OF RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS REGION
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH (50-70%) OVER
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA-KERMIT-FORT DAVIS-MARFA-
PRESIDIO LINE THROUGH THIS TONIGHT, WITH LOWER CHANCES (20-
50 PERCENT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AS WELL AS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-
2000 J/KG MAY COINCIDE WITH UP TO 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE A LOCALIZED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING/LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2" MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BRING A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE (40-60 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PERMIAN BASIN, TRANS PECOS, AND
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU/BIG BEND REGION ON SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
GENERALLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HIGHS
WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S, EXCEPT FOR A FEW READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SCATTERED TS/SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS THIS MORNING. PEQ/INK COULD BE AFFECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION PREVENTS PUTTING ANYTHING IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE VFR AND MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 89 66 89 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 65 89 65 88 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN 71 91 69 89 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 67 89 65 87 / 10 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 63 81 62 79 / 0 20 10 20
HOBBS 63 86 62 84 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 58 82 57 81 / 10 50 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 68 89 67 88 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 67 88 66 87 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 67 89 65 88 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10
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