714
FXUS64 KMAF 141127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT (10%) CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
ELSEWHERE.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AXIS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OVER EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO.
THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S) HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, FAR WEST TEXAS, AND
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN LAST NIGHT. THESE FEATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, MEANING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HI-RES CAMS ARE STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. THIS COINCIDING WITH SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BRING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, TRANS PECOS, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA
PLATEAU/BIG BEND REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
"INVERTED-V" PROFILES WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.2" AND 1.4", SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ARE FORECAST TO
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOW 90S IN THE TRANS PECOS AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND REGION.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, CLEARING OUT REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND THE AID OF UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-50% CHANCE) ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL. AFTERNOON
HIGHS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. AS THIS OCCURS, AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE SAME
EACH DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT FOR MOST,
EXCEPT FOR 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW 70S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THOUGH RAIN WILL
CONTINUE NEAR FST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MORE TS/SHRA SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR MAF/FST. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS NEAR HOB, CURRENTLY IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 87 67 89 66 / 40 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 89 65 89 65 / 10 0 10 10
DRYDEN 90 71 91 69 / 40 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 67 89 65 / 50 10 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS 81 63 81 62 / 10 0 20 10
HOBBS 86 63 86 62 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 83 58 82 57 / 50 10 50 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 68 89 67 / 40 10 10 0
ODESSA 88 67 88 66 / 40 10 10 0
WINK 90 67 89 65 / 20 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10
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