452
FXUS64 KMAF 142305
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND, AND UP
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY EJECTING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS
THOUGH, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE ANOTHER SHOT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TOWARDS THE BIG BEND (KMAF'S 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE). THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT FROM BOTH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
UPSLOPE FLOW FARTHER SOUTH, LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES (30-50% GENERALLY) WILL
BE FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE SEVERE RISK IS ONCE AGAIN PRETTY
LOW OVERALL, BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
SOAKING MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED YESTERDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH
FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES, WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WELL FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN/AROUND THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS (30-50% CHANCE). HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED STAY MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS, AND
WANE AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, LOWS BOTTOM-OUT
IN THE 60S FOR MOST. THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS A BIT MORE MUNDANE
OVERALL.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD STAYS HOT WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. WEAK RIDGING WILL LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW RESIDE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
BY LATE WEEK, MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS AREA FROM NM.
UNFORTUNATELY, ANY COOL AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH SO
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE FOR A BIT
LONGER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FOR PERMIAN BASIN INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU UNTIL 02Z-04Z MONDAY, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
MAIN IMPACTS AT TERMINALS FROM STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT PERIOD, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS 15Z-20Z
MONDAY INTO END OF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS ACROSS EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 66 89 65 88 / 30 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 65 88 65 87 / 10 20 10 10
DRYDEN 70 91 68 89 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 67 89 65 87 / 0 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 63 80 62 78 / 0 30 10 20
HOBBS 62 86 62 85 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 58 83 57 81 / 20 50 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 89 66 88 / 30 10 10 0
ODESSA 66 88 65 87 / 20 10 10 0
WINK 66 89 65 88 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...94
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