319
FXUS64 KMAF 150523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND, AND UP
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY EJECTING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS
THOUGH, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE ANOTHER SHOT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TOWARDS THE BIG BEND (KMAF'S 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE). THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT FROM BOTH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
UPSLOPE FLOW FARTHER SOUTH, LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES (30-50% GENERALLY) WILL
BE FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE SEVERE RISK IS ONCE AGAIN PRETTY
LOW OVERALL, BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
SOAKING MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED YESTERDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH
FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES, WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WELL FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN/AROUND THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS (30-50% CHANCE). HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED STAY MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS, AND
WANE AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, LOWS BOTTOM-OUT
IN THE 60S FOR MOST. THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS A BIT MORE MUNDANE
OVERALL.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD STAYS HOT WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. WEAK RIDGING WILL LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW RESIDE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
BY LATE WEEK, MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS AREA FROM NM.
UNFORTUNATELY, ANY COOL AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH SO
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE FOR A BIT
LONGER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 65 88 65 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 88 65 87 64 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN 91 68 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 89 65 87 65 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 80 62 78 61 / 30 10 20 10
HOBBS 86 62 85 61 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 83 57 81 56 / 50 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 66 88 66 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 88 65 87 65 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 89 65 88 64 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55
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