193
FXUS64 KMAF 151124
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND, AND UP
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THIS WEEK BEGINS A STRING OF DAYS THAT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
CAPPING MOST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE DAVIS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD HELP WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH THE SAME TEMPERATURE WISE WITH
THE HIGH IN MEXICO BUILDING NORTH AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
CWA.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE SHORT TERM.
THE HIGH OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE STAGNANT PATTERN DOES
NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CHANGE MUCH NOR DOES IT ALLOW FOR MUCH
OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME IT WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY (EASTERLY AT
PEQ) WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CNM, HOB, INK, AND PEQ. HOWEVER, HAVE LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING AND COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 66 89 65 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 89 64 87 64 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 91 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 65 88 65 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 80 62 78 62 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS 87 62 85 62 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 82 56 81 56 / 40 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 67 89 66 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 66 88 66 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 90 65 88 65 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55
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