109
FXUS64 KMAF 151724
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND, AND UP
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THIS WEEK BEGINS A STRING OF DAYS THAT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
CAPPING MOST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE DAVIS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD HELP WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH THE SAME TEMPERATURE WISE WITH
THE HIGH IN MEXICO BUILDING NORTH AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
CWA.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE SHORT TERM.
THE HIGH OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE STAGNANT PATTERN DOES
NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CHANGE MUCH NOR DOES IT ALLOW FOR MUCH
OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME IT WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR CNM, HOB, AND POSSIBLY PEQ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 66 89 65 90 / 0 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 64 87 64 87 / 10 10 0 20
DRYDEN 68 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 65 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 62 78 62 79 / 10 10 10 20
HOBBS 62 85 62 85 / 10 0 0 10
MARFA 56 81 56 82 / 10 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 65 88 65 88 / 10 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95
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