571
FXUS64 KMAF 152230
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN/NEAR THE DAVIS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS (30-50%). ASIDE FROM ISOLATED (10-20%) RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TUESDAY.
- LOW (10-25%) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN.
- HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, RISING INTO THE LOW-
TO- MID 90S FOR MOST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEAR OUR
REGION OUT OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA
STAYS RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO A TROUGH ROLLING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT SETTLE
INTO THE 50S NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY
WARM INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WITH RIDGING AS OUR PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (10-20%), RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AIDED BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOPEZ
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA, AND WE WILL REMAIN IN QUASI-ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID, SMALL
DISTURBANCES/VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME FORCING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TROUGH WILL TRY TO SEND A FRONT DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHICH LOOKS
TO WEAKEN, RETREAT NORTH THURSDAY, THEN GET PUSHED BACK DOWN THIS
DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT). RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
STALL RIGHT BEFORE OR ELSE JUST AS IT REACHES OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. IN ANY CASE, THE DISTURBANCES, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIFT FROM THE FRONT, IMPLY AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
"BEST" CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (THANKS IN LARGE PART
TO UPSLOPE FLOW) AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN (10-25%).
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADILY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
BY SUNDAY, RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE, BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL NEVERTHELESS DIMINISH. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 66 89 65 89 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 64 87 64 87 / 10 10 0 20
DRYDEN 68 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 65 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 62 79 61 79 / 10 10 0 20
HOBBS 63 85 62 85 / 10 0 0 10
MARFA 56 81 56 81 / 10 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 87 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 65 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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