725
FXUS64 KMAF 160725
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES (10%) TODAY IN/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN. AT THE MOMENT, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANCES (10-30%)
DECREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, RISING INTO THE LOW-
TO- MID 90S FOR MOST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW EVIDENCE OF
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL (88 F AT
MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME
ANY SUBSIDENCE DUE TO RIDGING BOTH DAYS. TUESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES
(10%) OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES (10-30%) LOOK TO EXPAND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THAT BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. AS SUCH, SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD COOL A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
SETTLE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT FOR 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOW 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRY TO SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BEFORE REACHING OUR
AREA, IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY BEFORE
RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO EITHER STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH OR ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS FRONT, COUPLED WITH SMALL UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT/INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES (10-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCES (30-50%) OF RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS.
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL PROBABILITIES (10-30%) DROP BY THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE DAVIS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OWING TO UPSLOPE FLOW/TERRAIN-INDUCED LIFT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS MEANS THAT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE AND RAINFALL PROBABILITIES
SHOULD DECREASE. AT THIS TIME, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 88 66 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 87 64 86 64 / 10 0 20 10
DRYDEN 90 67 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 88 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 62 78 61 / 10 10 30 10
HOBBS 86 63 84 62 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA 81 56 81 57 / 10 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 88 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 88 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10
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