836
FXUS64 KMAF 022302
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AND MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA TODAY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOW
HIGHS TO AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S F TO MID 90S F, LOWER TO MID
80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND MID TO UPPER 90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE.
DUE TO STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER RIDGING, HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS SE NM INTO W TX WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZIER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS FALL INTO MID 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BASINS OF
CULBERSON COUNTY, AND USUAL COOLER SPOTS OF NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, WITH LOWER TO MID 60S F ELSEWHERE, AS
CONTINUING LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 F COUPLED WITH LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING DESPITE UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHEN MORE AND WINDS BACK TO
MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS MID 80S F
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN,
LOWER 90S F MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND TERRELL COUNTY, AND LOWER TO MID 809S F RIO
GRANDE BASINS. DESPITE MORE EASTERLY WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW MID
50S F. THIS WILL AGAIN ENABLE LOWS TO FALL AS LOW OR A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN TONIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERNMOST CWA WHERE LOWS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S F. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE PERIOD, AND THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM, WHICH REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS,
MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST, THICKNESSES WILL DECREASE A
SKOSH, SHAVING A DEGREE OR SO OFF OF FRIDAY'S HIGHS.
SUNDAY, A SECONDARY TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. MODELS INCREASE
THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY, YIELDING PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED AS HIGHS PLATEAU ~ 8-10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
MONDAY/TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN SUNDAY, YET
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY EVENING, WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MINOR SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA, PROVIDING AN ASSIST TO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, FIRST IN THE NORTH, THEN FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS, HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT AS MINIMAL
AS THEY GET. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER W/THE FRONT THAN THE
ECMWF/CMC, BUT ALL THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE NBM HIGHS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF ONLY 2-3 F ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 62 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 60 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 91 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 90 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 61 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10
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