131
FXUS64 KMAF 030528
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS
ANY CHANCE AT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE GOOD THING...THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY NICE MORNINGS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST, 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING YOU'LL NOTICE IS AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH ONCE WE GET TO SATURDAY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING ONTO
THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ANY UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS OF APPRECIABLE STRENGTH KEEP TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH TO HAVE A DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR AREA. ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA AS
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND WE COOL DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AS A BIT MORE MOISTURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH A (VERY) WEAK WIND SHIFT/DIFFUSE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE PULSES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WILL ALLOW
FOR A LEAST SOME LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TOP OUT IN THE 80S AND UPPER 70S
FOR MOST (WHICH IS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, BUT STILL 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THAT BEING SAID, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK WEST INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 92 64 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 81 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 88 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 91 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 90 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 90 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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