058
FXUS64 KMAF 041036
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
EXPECT ANOTHER HOT WEEKEND, EVEN BY OUR STANDARDS. MID LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG TROUGH LIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA, IT WILL DO LITTLE TO BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES OR A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO LEESIDE TROUGHING. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. SUNDAY LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP FILTER MORE
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES DECREASE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES RELATIVE TO WEEKEND TEMPERATURES, BUT NEVERTHELESS REMAIN 5-
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (A HIGH OF 82 DEGREES IS TYPICAL AT MAF
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD). INCREASING MOISTURE, VORTICITY MAXIMA IN
THE FLOW ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGING TO THE EAST, AND A WEAK
WIND SHIFT/DIFFUSE FRONT ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES (20-40%)
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS. LOWER CHANCES (10-20%)
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
(BUT STILL JUST ABOVE) SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL OFF
LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS GUIDANCE INDICATES
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE YET AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET WITH VFR PREVAILING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 62 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 90 64 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 89 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 80 61 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 86 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 88 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 87 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 89 63 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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