927
FXUS64 KMAF 060304
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
BROAD RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. BY TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
LOW(<5%) NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR ALL OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY AT LEAST MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE
FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY BETWEEN
20-30 PERCENT) ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS, AND NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN,
TRANS PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND AREA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY. WE STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT (MAYBE JUST
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY).
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LATE IN THE
WEEK, VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN
PREVALENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE MAJORITY OF OUR
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 64 90 63 85 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 64 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 62 81 60 76 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 55 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 65 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 64 90 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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