740
FXUS64 KMAF 061038
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
538 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA UP INTO MANITOBA, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, IF NOT A DEGREE COOLER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED THICKNESSES.
TONIGHT, A 35 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP, KEEPING MIXING IN
PLAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 10-12 F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THOSE WHO LIKE COOLER WEATHER, TUESDAY WILL BE A TREAT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SLOW AND/OR
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO EAST, AND THICKNESSES WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH, YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING ONLY ~ 5 F
ABOVE NORMAL. CAMS ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THIS COULD KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STRING OF HOT DAYS MOVING
FORWARD, BUT NOT BEFORE OUR "COOLEST" DAY OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FELT WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). A
LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE HEAT RETURNS THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARD 90 AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT
BEFORE WE SEE MORE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 63 87 63 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 90 63 85 63 / 0 0 10 20
DRYDEN 90 66 88 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 90 64 88 64 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 81 60 76 58 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 87 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 20
MARFA 83 55 81 56 / 0 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 88 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 90 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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