447
FXUS64 KMAF 072347
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 647 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- LOW (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW FROM THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS (10-30%).
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS (10-40%
CHANCES). CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ALSO HINT AT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S FOR MOST, WITH 70S BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, TOMORROW
WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S (RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
(10-30%) WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT,
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOWS
BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S AND UPPER 50S.
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE ONCE AGAIN START TO
WARM UP AND DRY OUT...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
TO THE WEST OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCOMPANYING UPPER STORM SYSTEM TO THE EAST, MID TO UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN
THE BUILDING RIDGING AND DEPARTING TROUGHING DECREASES. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F, 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN TO LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG RIO
GRANDE AND LOWER TO MID 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONCURRENTLY, LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F ALLOW TO CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F, MID TO UPPER 50S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS, AND USUAL COOLER SPOTS OF
WESTERNMOST AND NORTHERNMOST SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERNMOST TERRAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WIND
TRAJECTORIES AGAIN SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER,
CHANCES, TIMING, AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH
ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THIS CONVECTION COULD IMPACT KHOB EARLY THIS EVENING
(THROUGH AROUND 02Z) AND WILL INCLUDE PROB30 MENTION FOR TSRA
THERE. VFR OTHERWISE REMAINS PREVALENT WITH BROKEN MID/UPPER CLOUD
DECKS MOVING OVERHEAD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 62 85 63 87 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 63 81 63 83 / 30 10 10 0
DRYDEN 67 86 67 87 / 10 30 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 64 84 64 85 / 10 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 72 58 74 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS 59 80 59 82 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 57 77 56 77 / 10 20 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 84 65 86 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 64 83 65 85 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 65 83 64 85 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21
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