945
FXUS64 KMAF 080457
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- LOW (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW FROM THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS (10-30%).
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS (10-40%
CHANCES). CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ALSO HINT AT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S FOR MOST, WITH 70S BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, TOMORROW
WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S (RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
(10-30%) WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT,
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOWS
BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S AND UPPER 50S.
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE ONCE AGAIN START TO
WARM UP AND DRY OUT...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
TO THE WEST OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCOMPANYING UPPER STORM SYSTEM TO THE EAST, MID TO UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN
THE BUILDING RIDGING AND DEPARTING TROUGHING DECREASES. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F, 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN TO LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG RIO
GRANDE AND LOWER TO MID 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONCURRENTLY, LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F ALLOW TO CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F, MID TO UPPER 50S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS, AND USUAL COOLER SPOTS OF
WESTERNMOST AND NORTHERNMOST SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERNMOST TERRAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WIND
TRAJECTORIES AGAIN SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER,
CHANCES, TIMING, AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDERNEATH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH EASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 86 63 89 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 64 81 63 83 / 10 20 10 0
DRYDEN 67 87 67 88 / 10 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 64 84 64 86 / 10 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 73 58 74 / 10 20 10 0
HOBBS 60 81 60 83 / 10 20 10 0
MARFA 56 78 56 78 / 0 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 85 63 87 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 64 84 64 86 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 65 84 64 86 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21
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