891
FXUS64 KMAF 081727
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY ALONG THE PECOS RIVER.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED A BIT
FARTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE,
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE PECOS, OR JUST
BEYOND, AT 06Z. THIS FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, CERTAINLY
NOT WHAT WAS DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO. LATEST CAMS AND NBM NOW PORTEND
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ~ 2-4 F ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH IS STILL COOLER
THAN HIGHS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. ONE UPSIDE OF THE FRONT IS
THAT IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE PECOS. UNFORTUNATELY, HOWEVER, THIS
LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNDOWN AS THINGS COOL OFF. UNFORTUNATELY, THINGS WON'T COOL OFF
THAT MUCH. A 25 KT LLJ AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 10-12 F ABOVE WHERE THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THURSDAY, SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW, AND A TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY BEGINS. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES. GRIDS THURSDAY STAY DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A FEW CHANGES NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE AT CONVECTION AND MOST CLOUDS FOR
THAT MATTER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE).
THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER
THROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. REMNANTS OF TC PRISCILLA
IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
SPREADING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. MOST OF THIS WILL MISS US
TO THE NORTH, BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
RAINFALL AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM
WON'T STICK AROUND AND WILL PASS QUICKLY ONTO THE PLAINS AS RIDGING
TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK. THROUGH IT ALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CLOUD DECK OF 2500 FT MAY OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (18-19Z) AT BOTH CNM AND HOB TERMINALS, BUT
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE CIGS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT. TS PROB30 WAS
ALSO IMPLEMENTED AT FST GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE
REMAINING NEAR THE SITE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 63 83 60 84 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 67 88 65 87 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 86 62 86 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 58 74 58 76 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 83 58 83 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 56 78 53 78 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 86 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11
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