748
FXUS64 KMAF 081744
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (10-20%) THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND, THEN WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHEAST WITH
INCREASING CLOUD AND RAIN CHANCES.
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL EXPECTED OVER
WESTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN OF CULBERSON COUNTY, TX AND EDDY
COUNTY, NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED
THROUGHOUT TODAY, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER. CAMS DEPICT
PWATS RANGING IN THE 75-90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN
GIVEN THE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE, ALONG WITH THE DRY MID
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ALLOWING EVAPORATION OF SOME
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. THEREFORE,
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE GOING TO BE THE
COOLEST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S FOR MOST.
AFTER SUNSET, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE. LOWS TONIGHT
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL (MID 50S TO UPPER 60S), THANKS TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM HURRICANE PRISCILLA KEEPING RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR PATCHY FOG
BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER, BREAKS OF THIS
CLOUD COVERAGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
OCCUR.
THURSDAY, AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. SURFACE WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ASSIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER ENHANCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE DRY AND
WARMING TREND CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE LONG-TERM.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS PREVAILS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW MID 50S
F FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MID TO UPPER 80S F, UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG
RIO GRANDE. AS WINDS STAY LIGHTER OVERNIGHT DESPITE BREEZY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONDITIONS, LOWS IN 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, 60S
F ELSEWHERE ARE ANTICIPATED. A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND TAKES
PLACE, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UP SUNDAY AS LOWER TO
MID 90S F EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER UPPER TRANS PECOS AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO UPPER 80S F OVER SE
NM PLAINS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
MEAN SIMILAR LOWS TO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
WESTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DEVELOPS SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA. AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID 50S F TO LOWER 60S F, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S F WITH 50S F ONLY OVER MARFA
PLATEAU INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY ARE
FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TC PRISCILLA FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER
AZ/NM INTERACT WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A COLD MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SE NM PLAINS
INTO WESTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EDDY COUNTY INTO CULBERSON
COUNTY ARE STILL EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN DECREASE WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD. FORECASTS OF RAINFALL
TIMING, COVERAGE, AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT,
BUT MODELS HAVE INCREASED FORECASTS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER WESTERNMOST EDDY COUNTY AND CULBERSON
COUNTY. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW SUIT, DECREASING BY A FEW DEGREES RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER
80S F, MID TO UPPER 70S F HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AND 90S F AND ABOVE
ALONG RIO GRANDE, PARTS OF REEVES COUNTY PLAINS, AND NORTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN. LOWS STAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, SO EVEN AS RIDGING AGAIN TAKES HOLD, THE
AIR WILL NOT FEEL AS DRY AS NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CLOUD DECK OF 2500 FT MAY OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (18-19Z) AT BOTH CNM AND HOB TERMINALS, BUT
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE CIGS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT. TS PROB30 WAS
ALSO IMPLEMENTED AT FST GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE
REMAINING NEAR THE SITE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 62 83 60 85 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 67 87 65 88 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 86 62 86 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 74 58 76 / 0 20 10 0
HOBBS 59 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 77 53 78 / 0 20 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 86 62 86 / 0 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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