201
FXUS64 KMAF 091051
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- WARM/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MID AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY HELPING TO
END MOST RAIN CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE EXPECT A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM DUE TO CONTINUE UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS; 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
50S/60S OVERNIGHT BEFORE YET ANOTHER HOT DAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NIL AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BECOMES PREVALENT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES (10-40%) INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERNMOST AREAS SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SENDS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES/VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE DUE
TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RAISING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AREAWIDE. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES (10-30%) OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND
PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER,
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AND TOTALS REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
RIDGING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFYING A
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, DETAILS IN NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE AS MONDAY APPROACHES. STAY TUNED!
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 87 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 84 61 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 87 65 87 62 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 86 63 87 63 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 74 59 75 58 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 82 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 77 54 79 52 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 85 62 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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