930
FXUS64 KMAF 120728
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
228 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 228 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
- A DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST ODDS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WE SHALL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION ACROSS
EDDY COUNTY IN SE NM AND CULBERSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THERE IS A BREAK. MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE
OF TODAY LOOK REACH BETWEEN ABOUT A TENTH TO A HALF AN INCH, BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE VERY WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA
AND FURTHER WEST WHERE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR MORE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. HIGHS END UP IN THE 80S FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
THE LOW 90S, PARTICULARLY EAST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. HIGHS STAY IN
THE 70S TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEP IT COOLER.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PERMIAN BASIN, AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU. AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND MUCH LOWER TO NEAR ZERO FOR THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWARD.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO BETWEEN 10-30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGIAN REACH INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOTS STAYING RAIN COOLED. ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AROUND
A TENTH OR LESS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS(BETWEEN .5-.75") MEANING FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE SEEN WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DROP IN FROM THE PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND BEGINS TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST MONDAY
EVENING. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECLINE, BECOMING 10-40%
FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (BEST ODDS HERE) DOWN INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AGAIN, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TO MONITOR FOR MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE TOP STORY FOR MOST
HEADING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. THIS BEING THE CASE, HIGHS TUESDAY WARM INTO THE 70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY,
HIGHS IN THE 80S BECOME MORE PREVALENT, WITH 90S RETURNING TO
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMES SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGHS MAY RANGE WITHIN THE 70S TO 80S. LOWS
EACH NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE 50S TO 60S. LOWS IN THE
40S MAY FINALLY CREEP INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
-LOPEZ
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
RADAR IS SHOWING WEAK ECHOES MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SHRA WILL OCCUR AT CNM INTERMITTENTLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS MORNING. MORE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE VFR AND MODEST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 66 87 63 / 10 30 20 0
CARLSBAD 84 64 82 62 / 40 50 30 30
DRYDEN 91 66 88 65 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 88 65 87 65 / 30 30 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 59 73 58 / 50 50 40 40
HOBBS 83 62 81 60 / 30 50 40 20
MARFA 79 58 82 56 / 40 50 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 87 66 86 64 / 10 30 10 0
ODESSA 86 66 85 65 / 10 30 20 0
WINK 86 66 85 65 / 30 50 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10
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