719
FXUS64 KMAF 121545
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
- A DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST ODDS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WE SHALL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION ACROSS
EDDY COUNTY IN SE NM AND CULBERSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THERE IS A BREAK. MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE
OF TODAY LOOK REACH BETWEEN ABOUT A TENTH TO A HALF AN INCH, BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE VERY WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA
AND FURTHER WEST WHERE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR MORE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. HIGHS END UP IN THE 80S FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
THE LOW 90S, PARTICULARLY EAST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. HIGHS STAY IN
THE 70S TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEP IT COOLER.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PERMIAN BASIN, AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU. AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND MUCH LOWER TO NEAR ZERO FOR THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWARD.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO BETWEEN 10-30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN REACH
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOTS STAYING RAIN COOLED.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING AROUND A TENTH OR LESS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, A FEW SPOTS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS(BETWEEN .5-.75") MEANING FLOODING WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE SEEN WITH ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DROP IN FROM THE PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND BEGINS TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST MONDAY
EVENING. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECLINE, BECOMING 10-40%
FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (BEST ODDS HERE) DOWN INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AGAIN, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TO MONITOR FOR MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE TOP STORY FOR MOST
HEADING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. THIS BEING THE CASE, HIGHS TUESDAY WARM INTO THE 70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY,
HIGHS IN THE 80S BECOME MORE PREVALENT, WITH 90S RETURNING TO
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMES SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGHS MAY RANGE WITHIN THE 70S TO 80S. LOWS
EACH NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE 50S TO 60S. LOWS IN THE
40S MAY FINALLY CREEP INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
-LOPEZ
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. -SHRA IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT PERHAPS KFST, BUT CIGS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 67 87 63 / 10 20 20 0
CARLSBAD 84 64 80 62 / 40 60 30 30
DRYDEN 91 66 89 65 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 89 65 88 65 / 30 20 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 59 72 58 / 50 70 30 40
HOBBS 83 62 80 60 / 30 60 40 20
MARFA 79 58 82 55 / 30 40 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 67 85 64 / 10 30 30 0
ODESSA 85 67 85 64 / 20 30 30 0
WINK 85 66 85 64 / 30 50 30 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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