017
FXUS64 KMAF 131118
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
- RAIN CHANCES AND A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING HANG AROUND
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEST ODDS FOR RAINFALL WILL
SPAN FROM SE NM DOWN TOWARD THE DAVIS MTS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SET IN BY
MIDWEEK. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER CONDITIONS BACK DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF RAIN OR TWO HAS FALLEN IN A FEW SPOTS AND ABOUT THIS MUCH
MORE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR SEEING LOWER RAIN
CHANCES(AROUND 10-30%). A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN,
BUT WITH LIMITED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED BY RAIN AND CLOUDS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
THE WARMEST. BIG BEND AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU MAKE IT INTO THE 80S
TO LOW 90S WHEREAS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND HIGH TERRAIN STICK TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST WITH UPPER 50S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S
FORECASTED HIGHS. MANY LOCATIONS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH CLOUDIER OR RAIN COOLED AREAS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUES AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REACH INTO THE 80S, WITH 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THE TROUGH OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS OUR REGION
THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A LEE TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVER WEDNESDAY'S. MOST SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 80S, WHILE
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REACH INTO
THE 90S. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHALL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ZONAL SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. THUS, HIGHS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WEST TEXAS REACH
THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON, 80S FOR ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY SETTLE
INTO THE UPPER 40S (IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERNMOST COUNTIES)
TO 50S.
-LOPEZ
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
SCATTERED -SHRA REMAINS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWER CHANCES OF
IMPACTS AT FST/MAF. WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAIN AROUND
10KTS OR LESS. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 63 86 60 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 80 62 83 61 / 30 40 20 0
DRYDEN 89 66 86 66 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 88 64 86 63 / 20 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 72 59 75 57 / 40 30 20 0
HOBBS 79 61 82 58 / 50 20 10 0
MARFA 82 56 82 53 / 30 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 84 64 85 62 / 20 10 0 0
ODESSA 84 64 84 62 / 20 10 0 0
WINK 85 66 85 61 / 20 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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