828
FXUS64 KMAF 140701
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC
FRONT FRIDAY, AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MORNING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST TODAY, BECOMING OUR DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY WARMING INTO
THE 80S. THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
90S. TONIGHT, LOWS SETTLE INTO THE MID 50S (IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) TO THE MID 60S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE 80S, 90S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINATE PLAYER IN THE PATTERN. THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST WITH LOW 90S IN THE USUAL WARM SPOTS
ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE. BY SATURDAY, A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE SENT SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT, BUT AN OVERALL COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE EXTENDED STAY LOW. DESPITE THE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE AREA,
ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW(<5%).
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18Z.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 61 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 86 65 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 86 65 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 76 57 77 58 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 83 57 82 58 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 83 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 84 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 84 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 85 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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