737
FXUS64 KMAF 141738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC
FRONT FRIDAY, AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MORNING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST TODAY, BECOMING OUR DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY WARMING INTO
THE 80S. THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
90S. TONIGHT, LOWS SETTLE INTO THE MID 50S (IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) TO THE MID 60S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE 80S, 90S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
-LOPEZ
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINATE PLAYER IN THE PATTERN. THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST WITH LOW 90S IN THE USUAL WARM SPOTS
ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE. BY SATURDAY, A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE SENT SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT, BUT AN OVERALL COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE EXTENDED STAY LOW. DESPITE THE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE AREA,
ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW(<5%).
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500-3000 FT AGL OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN, INCLUDING NEAR KMAF AS OF 1730Z SHOULD
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE NORTH OF KCNM THROUGH
AROUND 18Z-19Z, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THIS
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS IMPACTING MOST AREA TERMINALS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT MAY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN/TRANS PECOS BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF CEILINGS OUT OF THE LOCAL TAFS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 60 85 61 / 30 0 0 0
DRYDEN 86 65 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 86 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 77 57 77 59 / 30 0 0 0
HOBBS 82 57 82 57 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 82 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 84 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 85 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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