702
FXUS64 KMAF 141930
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (10%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT FRIDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN HORN TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO CARLSBAD/ARTESIA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
LIFTED TO THE NORTH OF EDDY COUNTY NM. BREEZY S/SE WINDS HAVE
OTHERWISE ALLOWED FOR WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER MUCH OF TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
NOSING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
IN THE 50S AND 60S, WHILE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REACH INTO THE
80S AGAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY, MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS (EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE TRANS PECOS/DAVIS MOUNTAINS REGION) AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST. LOCATIONS IN THE TRANS PECOS
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S. BY THE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING) THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS COLD
FRONT, BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT LATER THIS WEEK. AT
THIS TIME, THE COOLEST MORNING THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT,
POPS (<5%) REMAIN NEAR ZERO AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN OF
BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY, SIGNIFYING A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500-3000 FT AGL OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN, INCLUDING NEAR KMAF AS OF 1730Z SHOULD
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE NORTH OF KCNM THROUGH
AROUND 18Z-19Z, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THIS
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS IMPACTING MOST AREA TERMINALS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT MAY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN/TRANS PECOS BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF CEILINGS OUT OF THE LOCAL TAFS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 59 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 60 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 65 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 57 77 59 78 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 57 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 52 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 60 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 62 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21
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