252
FXUS64 KMAF 151807
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
107 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
ANOTHER MILD DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY AS IT TRIES TO SQUASH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER OUR
REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS LEE TROUGHING SETS
UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING MORE GULF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON HELPING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW
STORMS. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO FIRE STORMS OFF IN THE DAVIS/GLASS MOUNTAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PECOS RIVER,
AND POSSIBLY THE PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR
ANOTHER WARM OCTOBER DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONT
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT. THIS WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
SATURDAY'S HIGHS, BUT WILL ON SUNDAY'S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST
TO SEE LOWS/HIGHS IN THE 50S/80S, RESPECTIVELY. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS
CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS TOP OUT INTO
THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME REGIONS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER FRONT ALONG WITH IT. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS AND
FRONTS, POPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT (AROUND 5% OR LESS) EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED AS DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
LOW CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND VFR IS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 61 88 57 83 / 0 10 10 0
DRYDEN 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 90 62 88 / 0 10 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 59 78 57 73 / 0 10 10 0
HOBBS 58 84 57 84 / 0 10 10 0
MARFA 53 82 53 81 / 0 10 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 61 86 62 88 / 0 10 10 0
ODESSA 61 85 63 87 / 0 10 10 0
WINK 62 88 61 88 / 0 10 20 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
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