432
FXUS64 KMAF 160706
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
206 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 204 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
OUR WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A RESULT,
LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSVERSES OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD. UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
BRINGS LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SE
NM, AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON/ EVENING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WITH SLIGHTLY
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST, WHILE THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS TOP
OUT IN THE 90S. TONIGHT, LOWS DIP INTO THE 50S/60S. FRIDAY, A
PACIFIC FRONT SWINGS OUR WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH INTO THE 80S AND 90S. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP IN LATER THIS WEEKEND. MORE DETAILS ON THIS
AND ITS IMPACTS IN THE LOG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONT ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, BUT IF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FASTER,
TEMPERATURES COULD STALL AND DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS
DIP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, SO RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.
A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY BEFORE SHOOTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW IN THE 50S. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
AND THE AIRMASS IT IS SLATED TO BRING WITH IT, KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN AS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ELUDE WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CONVECTIVE
MENTION IN THE LOCAL TAFS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 87 62 89 63 / 0 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 88 58 85 55 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 63 89 62 / 10 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 78 57 74 54 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 84 57 85 55 / 20 20 0 0
MARFA 82 53 82 52 / 20 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 63 88 63 / 10 10 0 10
ODESSA 85 63 87 63 / 10 10 0 10
WINK 89 61 88 57 / 20 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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