684
FXUS64 KMAF 170754
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY
INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY.
- BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CURRENT RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG BEND. HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THIS WELL, BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING VERY
SHORTLY. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES HEATING UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH COULD
HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND THUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY DROPPING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING WILL FINALLY FEEL
LIKE FALL WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN THE
NORTHERN BASIN, SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON SO FAR AND AS
COOL AS IT WILL FEEL WILL ONLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SUNDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE YEAR AS HIGHS
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACCOMPANYING A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND.
ENJOY THE COOL TEMPS BECAUSE A VERY QUICK REBOUND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS HIGHS JUMP RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE 90S. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS GOING TO SEE SOME RAPID TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THEREFORE
RIGHT AFTER A WARM MONDAY, A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND MORE COOLER
WEATHER. THE PATTERN MAY REPEAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SUPPORT
FOR ALL OF THE COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE AREA THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DRY.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
MARFA PLATEAU, AND POTENTIALLY INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KPEQ TAF. VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 63 86 53 / 10 40 10 0
CARLSBAD 85 57 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 90 65 93 59 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 89 64 87 54 / 10 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 74 53 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 85 56 81 48 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 82 53 78 47 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 64 86 53 / 0 30 0 0
ODESSA 87 64 85 54 / 0 20 0 0
WINK 88 59 86 51 / 0 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21
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