568
FXUS64 KMAF 171705
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY
INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY.
- BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CURRENT RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG BEND. HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THIS WELL, BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING VERY
SHORTLY. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES HEATING UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH COULD
HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND THUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY DROPPING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING WILL FINALLY FEEL
LIKE FALL WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN THE
NORTHERN BASIN, SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON SO FAR AND AS
COOL AS IT WILL FEEL WILL ONLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SUNDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE YEAR AS HIGHS
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACCOMPANYING A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND.
ENJOY THE COOL TEMPS BECAUSE A VERY QUICK REBOUND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS HIGHS JUMP RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE 90S. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS GOING TO SEE SOME RAPID TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THEREFORE
RIGHT AFTER A WARM MONDAY, A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND MORE COOLER
WEATHER. THE PATTERN MAY REPEAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SUPPORT
FOR ALL OF THE COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE AREA THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DRY.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT
MOST TERMINALS APART FROM STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM BEGINNING OF
PERIOD INTO 14Z-18Z SATURDAY, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME GUSTY NEAR OR ABOVE 15 KNOTS. A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR TERMINALS OVER STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM
23Z-02Z, BEFORE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS
FOR TERMINALS OVER SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
08Z SATURDAY, AND EXITS THE PERMIAN BASIN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 86 53 78 / 40 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 57 84 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 93 59 85 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 87 54 82 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 53 73 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 56 81 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 53 78 47 77 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 86 53 79 / 30 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 85 54 78 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 59 86 51 79 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94
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