138
FXUS64 KMAF 171902
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- LOW (30% TO 40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A FEW CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH FROM THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND TX PANHANDLE AND IMPINGES ON A DRYLINE SITUATED OVER
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIFT, MOISTURE, AND
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THESE SURFACE FEATURES ALLOWS A LOW (<30%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. BEFORE THEN, HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND MID TO UPPER 90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE AMIDST
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AT BASE OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
BYPASSING THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TONIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO MID TO UPPER 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
MOST OF SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, MID TO UPPER 60S F
MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S F HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERNMOST AND
NORTHERNMOST SE NM PLAINS. EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY, ANOTHER
LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 45%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN THE
FORECAST AND INDICATED IN BOTH FORECAST GRIDS AND MODELS OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN, AS THE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE REGION DEVELOPS INTO
AND THEN CLEARS THE AREA. INCREASED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH MAIN IMPACTS
BEING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD, BUT REGIONS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PICKING UP MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH RAINFALL DUE TO THE LOW POP-LOW QPF SETUP IN PLACE IN THE DRY
AIR (40S F DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF DRYLINE, LOWER TO MID 50S
F DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EAST OF DRYLINE).
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
MID 80S F, MID TO UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST OF LEA
COUNTY, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO EASTERN
STOCKTON PLATEAU, MID TO UPPER 90S F FROM BIG BEND INTO TERRELL
COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY, WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO LOWER TO MID 40S F IN USUAL COOLER SPOTS,
LOWER TO MID 50S F NORTH OF RIO GRANDE BASINS AND NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F RIO GRANDE
BASINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED PAST THIS WEEKEND AS
A SYNOPTIC ROLLER-COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES KEEPS CONDITIONS
EITHER UNSEASONABLY WARM OR COOL DEPENDING ON LOCATIONS OF FRONTS
AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL FALL-LIKE! MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S (NEAR NORMAL), WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. GOING FORTH INTO THE NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION
WILL BE CAUGHT IN A KIND OF TUG OF WAR BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH AND ADDITIONAL PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SHOOT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S (ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
NEVERTHELESS, A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA SENDS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THIS DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES END UP SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN TURN
SOUTHERLY, YIELDING ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (MID-TO-UPPER 80S FOR MOST). LATE IN THE WEEK, IT APPEARS
A THIRD TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN AND ONCE AGAIN USHER IN
MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE ALL OF THIS, RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE LONG TERM, AS IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY
APPEAR WE WILL EFFECTIVELY RECOVER THE MOISTURE DISPLACED TO THE
EAST BY THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT
MOST TERMINALS APART FROM STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM BEGINNING OF
PERIOD INTO 14Z-18Z SATURDAY, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME GUSTY NEAR OR ABOVE 15 KNOTS. A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR TERMINALS OVER STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM
23Z-02Z, BEFORE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS
FOR TERMINALS OVER SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
08Z SATURDAY, AND EXITS THE PERMIAN BASIN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 85 52 79 / 40 30 0 0
CARLSBAD 58 83 50 78 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 94 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 86 53 82 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 72 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 56 81 47 75 / 20 0 0 0
MARFA 54 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 85 53 79 / 30 20 0 0
ODESSA 64 83 53 78 / 30 10 0 0
WINK 60 85 50 79 / 20 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...94
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