909
FXUS64 KMAF 180755
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
- LOW (30% TO 40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES YO-YO UP AND DOWN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IT IS
ALWAYS NICE TO GET SOME RAINFALL THOUGH TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH BRINGS DRIER AIR IN TODAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT DROPPING LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S AND EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
BASIN. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE THE SPRING
AND A REMINDER THAT YES, FALL HAS ARRIVED. HIGHS SUNDAY REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MAKING A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH SEVERAL UPPER
TROUGHS TRANSITING THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THESE TROUGHS SENT
COLD FRONTS INTO WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
70S TO THE LOW 90S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER
ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH A THIRD MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. THE
INTERVENING DAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. NONE OF
THE SYSTEMS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
RAINFALL SO THERE ARE NO RAIN CHANCES AFTER TODAY.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE DID KEEP PROB30 MENTION FOR TSRA IN AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KCNM AND KFST (WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER) BETWEEN 07-14Z.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/NW AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 51 78 57 / 40 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 84 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 93 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 85 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 72 50 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 81 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 76 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 52 79 57 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 83 52 78 57 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 85 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21
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