865
FXUS64 KMAF 181824
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
124 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. WV IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS THE TROUGH HAS CLEARED WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, SCOURING THE COLUMN FROM ANY MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING'S CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR A DRY COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS ILL-DEFINED, AND AS SUCH, WILL ARRIVE GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT, W/OUT MUCH FANFARE EXCEPT MODEST CAA. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES, AND NO LLJ, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT, AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE FALL
SO FAR, EVEN IF STILL 1-2 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL, TOPPING OUT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A 40 KT LLJ REDEVELOPS, AND WILL COMBINE W/RETURN FLOW
AT THE SURFACE TO ADD 2-4 F TO TONIGHT'S LOWS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN EXPANDING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW-TO-MID 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WARM-UP IS SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH DAMPENS THE RIDGE AND SENDS A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, HIGHS TUESDAY
DROP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH 80S FARTHER
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REDEVELOP. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT, YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARS THE AREA,
SENDING A FRONT DOWN AND COOLING TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR-ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME "BETTER" SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THAT BEING SAID, HAVE LEFT POPS AT AROUND 10% (NOT
QUITE MENTIONABLE) FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN FOR NOW, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR/CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL EASE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT QUICKLY VEER TO RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 50 78 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 49 78 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 55 84 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 52 82 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 49 73 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 44 75 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 44 77 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 51 78 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 51 78 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 49 79 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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