978
FXUS64 KMAF 071113
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY
WEEKEND, THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
- STRONG EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THESE HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AND UNSECURED OBJECTS.
- NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING REGULATING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THESE AREAS. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ARE GOING TO BE
WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE PREVALENT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. CLEAR
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO MID
50S REGIONWIDE) ARE IN STORE. BY SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL BE EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY
SPANNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SEE
THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VERY DRY WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BELOW
45F AND LARGELY IN THE 20S AND 30S F PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN SIGHT. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND. FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
THIS WEEK/EARLY THIS WEEKEND, A STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND, AS TROUGHING IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ALLOWS COLD
FRONTS FROM FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS FALL AT
LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
DEVELOPS DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THIS TRANSLATES TO LOWER TO MID 40S
F, LOWER TO MID 30S F DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND GUADALUPES INTO NORTHERN
LEA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER 50S F ALONG RIO
GRANDE. THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY
SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTHWEST OF
PECOS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS AT LEAST
30 TO 40 MPH OVER GUADALUPES OF W TX AND NM AS WELL AS DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS AND GUADALUPE PASS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS GUSTS 40 TO 60
MPH FOR THESE SAME REGIONS. SUCH WINDS POSE A RISK TO TRAVEL AND
CAN BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS, SO WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, BUT HIGHS
TUMBLE AT LEAST 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS,
TRANSLATING TO 60S, 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS MOST OF
LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND 70S F LIMITED TO RIGHT
ALONG RIO GRANDE. CAA PERSISTS SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S F TO LOWER 30S F OVER BASINS
OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, WITH MID TO LOWER 30S F
ELSEWHERE APART FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S F RIGHT ALONG RIO
GRANDE. FREEZE WATCH PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF
PERMIAN BASIN AND CULBERSON COUNTY INTO MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS THAT HAVE NOT YET EXPERIENCED FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS,
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXACTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY CONTINUES THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S F COMMON ACROSS THE AREA APART FROM 50S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F ALONG RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER,
THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. AS RIDGING IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN OVER DESERT SW BUILDS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RESUMES BY
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT, WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
F ARE INDICATED. MID 70S TO MID 80S F FOR HIGHS, 40S F FOR LOWS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AND
MID 40S TO MID 50S F FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH AS TO START THE PERIOD, WINDS LOOK TO STAY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT WARMS UP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF
THE TERMINALS (BESIDES PEQ AND FST). WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 78 48 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 77 46 83 41 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 89 52 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 80 52 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 51 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 76 46 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 43 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 50 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 51 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 78 46 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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