503
FXUS64 KMAF 081924
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
124 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- THE FRONT YIELDS HIGH GAP WINDS AT GUADALUPE PASS AND CARLSBAD
CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A FRONT IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT ARE GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, GRADUALLY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO YIELD STRONG MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS, PARTICULARLY AT GUADALUPE
PASS AND CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S FOR
MOST, WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN (DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT). LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S TONIGHT, AS BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE TO FILTER COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, HIGHS TOP OUT NEARLY 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TODAY'S! TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA (LOW 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE).
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS, WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT, LOWS MONDAY MORNING
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN BASIN. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED LAST NIGHT.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUITE A BIT QUIETER THAN THE SHORT TERM.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S, ALBEIT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. BY TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S (7-11
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AS WINDS TAKE ON A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD WEST OF THE REGION. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE SENDS A FRONT DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S
(EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER) CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY OVERALL.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN FROM THAT
DIRECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 45 61 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 41 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 51 69 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 45 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 42 54 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 38 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 37 59 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 45 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 46 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 43 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-MITCHELL-REAGAN-
SCURRY-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
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