856
FXUS64 KMAF 100128
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
728 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 725 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
- CHILLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR FREEZE WARNING
ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING GOOD
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PARTS OF
CULBERSON COUNTY, INCLUDING VAN HORN, COULD DROP TO FREEZING OR
BELOW OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, AS WELL AS A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
OUR AREA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, AND YESTERDAY'S
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION. NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
BEEN BREEZY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE (PARTICULARLY IN/AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN). THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE THIS
AFTERNOON AND START TO VEER MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPS HIGHS TODAY 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S GENERALLY, 70S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE). THE BIG STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOWS TONIGHT. WE
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE (> 80%) THAT GAINES, DAWSON, AND PORTIONS OF
LEA COUNTY WILL FREEZE TONIGHT (AS WELL AS LOCATIONS IN THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS). THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. A FREEZE WATCH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INCLUDING VAN HORN, SOUTHERN
LEA, EDDY COUNTY, THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, ANDREWS COUNTY, AND
MARTIN COUNTY. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, WE HAVE ELECTED TO CANCEL
THIS WATCH. WHILE LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE ZONES TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
WAS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING (< 30% CONFIDENCE). THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THESE ZONES WILL
BE IN EDDY, ANDREWS, AND SOUTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES.
HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. LIKEWISE, LOWS WARM
A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM GOING INTO THE
LONG TERM...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
BY TUESDAY, A RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WINDS
BECOME BREEZY, TAKING ON A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES SHOOT BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS NEVERTHELESS END UP
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S. HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (WHICH IS 68-
69 DEGREES AT KMAF THIS TIME OF YEAR) CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PUSH THE RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA. BY SATURDAY, THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SO THE NBM
HAS INTRODUCED SOME LOW (10-15%) RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITHIN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE ACTUALLY SEE
RAIN, OR IF WE GET DRY-SLOTTED AND END UP JUST RECEIVING GUSTY
WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE, A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 34 64 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 35 68 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 39 66 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 38 69 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 37 59 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 32 63 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 28 62 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 36 63 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 37 62 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 35 65 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95
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