363
FXUS64 KMAF 111113
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTOS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT MAY CAUSE A SPARK, AND REPORT FIRES TO LOCAL
AUTHORITIES!
- BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE
AREA DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
- WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER INTO END OF THE WEEK, THEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, A LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS STORE FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST PLACING THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF
TO THE EAST, WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN
BOTH FEATURES. GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S REGIONWIDE
TODAY.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE COMPARED WITH THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DUE TO VERY WEAK CAA. THEREFORE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SIMILAR AS TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION PERSIST, BEFORE RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 45F AND LARGELY IN THE 20S AND 30S F
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO CONTINUE FALLING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S F EVEN ON THE WARMEST NIGHTS AND NO MATTER HOW
WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES GET. 70S AND 80S F, UPPER 80S F TO
90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE WILL BE PRESENT BY WEDNESDAY, AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING OVER SE NM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S F, 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S F
BIG BEND ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST, GREAT BASIN, AND DESERT SW IS STILL PROGGED TO
DEVELOP EAST. ACCOMPANYING LIFT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GONE UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS, NOW
SHOWING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, AS WELL AS MOST OF EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. THE BIGGER STORY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WINDS, WITH
BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY IMPACT THE AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY HAVE TRENDED BACK UP
INTO THE 70S AND 80S F APART FROM UPPER 60S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN AND 50S F ELSEWHERE, SUGGESTING A LATER PACIFIC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HOWEVER, BY NEXT SUNDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S F, 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 70S F EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE BASINS ARE FORECAST AS COLD
AIR MOVES IN ON WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. LOWS THE NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR FREEZING TO MID 30S F OVER DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY, WITH 40S F ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (10-17 KTS) ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS MAY
OCCUR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THESE GUSTS OCCURRING IS AT MAF AND
HOB TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
GUSTY 20-FT WINDS 20 MILES PER HOUR OR GREATER OVER THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS IN CHAVEZ COUNTY, NEW MEXICO, ALONG WITH MIN
RH BELOW CRITICAL 15%, FUEL ERCS IN THE 50TH-74TH PERCENTILE, AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REGION FROM 9 AM MST/ 10 AM CST TO 3 PM
MST/ 4 PM CST. EXERCISE CAUTION IN DISCARDING ANY FLAMMABLES AND
OUTDOOR BURNING, AND AVOID DRIVING OR PARKING ON DRY GRASS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 82 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 74 43 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 83 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 47 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 42 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 74 39 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 44 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 75 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 80 41 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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