078
FXUS64 KMAF 112303
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE SACRAMENTOS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER INTO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN US. SKIES WILL
STAY CLEAR AND, AFTER TODAY, WINDS DECREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
IN THE 40S FOR MOST WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND AREAS AROUND BIG BEND STAYING IN THE LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY SEES
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, LOWS MOVE
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
LOW(<5%).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THIS
DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
80S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. RECORD HIGHS FOR THOSE DAYS
AT MIDLAND ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN (84 ON 11/13 AND 85 ON
33/14).
ONCE THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST OF CA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY, AND WITH STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE, IT'LL STAY DRY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS STORM WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS NM SUNDAY KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A DRY
SLOT WITH THE BEST AREA OF ASCENT WELL TO OUR NORTH. THESE SAME
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS TROUGH SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS WE GET CLOSER. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH HELPING KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR/CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 46 79 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 44 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 50 80 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 48 71 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 42 77 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 39 78 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 77 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 44 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 41 79 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...99
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