769
FXUS64 KMAF 121737
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER INTO END OF THE WEEK.
- AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND VERY LOW (< 10%) RAIN
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA TODAY, WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE
AND REMAINING THAT WAY UNTIL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN WITH RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF LEE TROUGHING. VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
PERSISTS. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F, LOWER TO MID
70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 80S F STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO RIO GRANDE
BASINS. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS ALLOW LOW TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S F, UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S F RIO GRANDE BASINS, STOCKTON
PLATEAU, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE
VALLEYS. TOMORROW WITH RENEWED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND BREEZY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC COAST,
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND UPPER 80S F TO LOWER 90S F RIO GRANDE BASINS ARE
FORECAST. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND A STRONG FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND
BRINGS AT LEAST A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN. READ THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE REGION HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THESE DAYS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80S, WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AT MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT, THE FORECASTED
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD TIE THE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH DAYS RESPECTIVELY (85 ON FRIDAY AND 84 ON SATURDAY).
SATURDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EASTWARD DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTING ACROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL SEND A PACIFIC FRONT TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION
IS WHEN ARE THESE STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING TO
OCCUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM'S
TIMING AND POSITIONING, THOUGH TRENDS POINT TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS HINTS FOR A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS HAVE VARYING
PROGRESSIONS OF THE STORM SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE GOING TO BE DETERMINED
WHEN THE PACIFIC FRONT PASSES. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THE
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER ON SUNDAY, KEEPING SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO 80S, WHILE MONDAY HIGHS COOL DOWN 5-10 DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN-WISE, THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
DIMINISHES CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO WHERE THE BEST AREA OF ASCENT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IN WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR IT. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 46 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 79 43 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 83 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 82 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 72 51 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 44 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 79 42 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21
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