248
FXUS64 KMAF 130527
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1127 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH POPS AT ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE
RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AT MAF IS 84 SET IN 1989.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND TEXAS
BY FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE FORECASTED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE KMAF RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE 85F AND 84F WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST BEING 86F AND 85F
RESPECTIVELY. THIS WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT DOES
SEND A PACIFIC FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS MOVE A FEW DEGREES LOWER, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, SO RAIN CONTINUES TO ELUDE THE
CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THAT TIME
FRAME REMAINS HIGH AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR
THE TRACK OF THE SECOND UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR TERMINALS OVER EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN ARE
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 46 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 79 43 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 83 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 82 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 72 51 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 44 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 79 42 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94
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