338
FXUS64 KMAF 130802
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING AGAIN REPEATS THE STORY
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS AS MID TO
UPPER RIDGING IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION HOLDS. WHAT HAS CHANGED NOTABLY FROM PAST FORECASTS
IS A MUCH SLOWER TRACK OF AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING.LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RENEW
A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY AS WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC COAST
INCREASE. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND RESULTING ADIABATIC
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALLOW HIGHS EVERYWHERE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, TRANSLATING TO MID TO UPPER 80S F, MID TO
UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND UPPER 80S TO 90S F ALONG RIO
GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. WITH WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S AND
30S F WEST OF BIG BEND INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN DESPITE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S F FOR POINTS EAST,
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOWS TO BE 25 TO 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN HIGHS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID 50S
F, MID TO UPPER 40S F DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY,
UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
BY FRIDAY, FURTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS THE
UPPER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW WILL INCREASE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH BREEZY
TO GUSTY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED
MOISTURE, EVIDENCED BY FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
LARGELY BELOW 45F. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NON-ZERO RAIN CHANCES
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATING MORE DAYS OF
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST ON BOTH DAYS. THE KMAF RECORD HIGH ON SATURDAY IS
84F (SET BACK IN 2021) WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH BEING 86F,
MEANWHILE THE RECORD HIGH ON SUNDAY IS 86F (SET BACK IN 1963) WITH
FORECAST HIGH BEING 85F.
SUNDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A PACIFIC FRONT TO THE REGION BRINGING THE
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TO AN END WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH A LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME ARRIVAL. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH TUESDAY HAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOST
AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SIGNALS ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST USHERING IN RAIN CHANCES.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OF THE POSITIONING, TIMING,
AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM HINTING AT HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DETAILS OF THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM SHOULD BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR TERMINALS OVER EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN ARE
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 52 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 83 51 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 75 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 83 47 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 81 44 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 53 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 83 53 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 85 46 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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