373
FXUS64 KMAF 051638
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1038 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
(ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND AROUND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.
- AFTER A WEAK FRONT SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD, THOUGH NOT WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TRANSPORTING
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERHEAD AS CIRRUS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
BIG BEND REGION AS LATEST 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOME UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN
AS CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS IN SEARCH OF
EVIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG. IF FREEZING FOG WERE
TO DEVELOP, WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AS ROADS
MAY BECOME SLICK FOR DRIVERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES,
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. A
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER
THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, YIELDING VERY GUSTY
CONDITIONS. WE HAVE THUS OPTED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING THAT INCLUDES THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CARLSBAD CAVERNS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP US DRY
AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP CONSIDERABLY (15-20 DEGREES) FROM THE DAY
PRIOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST,
EXCEPT 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EDDY COUNTY AND
AREAS NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ADVANCES AND THE LEE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
GUSTY SATURDAY AS A WINDS ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW.
WITH THAT IN MIND, ANOTHER HIGH WIND PRODUCT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
DESPITE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS MEETING CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WE
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS FOR NOW TO AVOID
CONFUSION IN OUR MESSAGING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, MUCH OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, AND OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-6 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY FOR MOST DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING NORTHERLY AS A SHORTWAVE
SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MODERATES
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, KEEPING MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO IN THE 60S AND UPPER 50S (70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEVERTHELESS,
SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOP MONDAY, AND OUR AREA ENDS UP UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING
TREND THAT PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY'S
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST, ALBEIT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
SUNDAY'S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TICK UP DAILY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY (NEARLY
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). BY FRIDAY, SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION, BUT
GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY INCONSISTENT ON TIMING AND FRONTAL
STRENGTH. AS A RESULT, FOR THE TIME BEING WE HAVE LEFT HIGHS IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND TIMING. IN ANY CASE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, W/DECREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 33 68 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 32 68 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 42 76 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 40 73 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 36 57 39 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 30 66 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 32 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 35 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 35 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 32 69 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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