005
FXUS64 KMAF 052340
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
540 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
- WARMER TODAY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPES.
CONTINUED WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RETURNS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO OFF THE BAJA COAST, LEAVING WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE, LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE HAS INDUCED
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO TODAY'S HIGHS, ALTHOUGH THE NBM STILL
APPEARS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN WARMING THINGS UP, AND WILL LIKELY
OVERSHOOT HIGHS AGAIN. HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES.
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE...SLIGHTLY EAST AT BEST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, AND WILL COMBINE
W/SKIES CLEARING NW-SE FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY, THE TROUGH DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. STRONGER
LEESIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED, GENERATING A MTN WAVE SIGNATURE
OVER THE GUADALUPES THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL
HIGH WINDS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE'VE ISSUED A WATCH FOR THIS. WHILE
MINIMUM RELATIVITY WILL STAY OUT OF CRITICAL TERRITORY, THESE
INCREASED WINDS MAY WARRANT AN RFD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ADD ~ 5-7 F TO TODAY'S HIGHS,
PUTTING TEMPERATURES ~ 5-10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE, AND WILL
COMBINE W/SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
CALMER WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST
STORY FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
ALOFT, WEAK MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION MAINTAINS NEAR ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, KNOCKING HIGHS DOWN 5F TO
10F, TRANSLATING TO LOWER TO MID 60S F, 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER 60S TO
70S F RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20F TO 25F RANGE AREAWIDE ENHANCING
OVERNIGHT COOLING ALLOW LOWS TO FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING NORTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S F
RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. THIS
MAY BE AS COLD AS NIGHTS GET FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CAA PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MID 60S F, UPPER 50S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, MID 60S F FROM MARFA PLATEAU AND STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO
TERRELL COUNTY, AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F FROM THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. HOWEVER, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WARM BY A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING LOWS TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, SOUTH AND EAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY. A
WARMING TREND ENSUES BY TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY AND ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR, EVEN AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 30F. THIS TRANSLATES TO A RETURN TO MID
60S TO MID 70S F WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 70S F BY WEDNESDAY, AS WELL
AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F AREAWIDE. FORECAST GRIDS
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK INDICATE WIDESPREAD 70S F, 60S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER 80S F FOR THE USUAL WARMEST SPOTS OVER THE
BIG BEND. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY, RETURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 31 68 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 31 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 41 76 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 39 73 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 35 58 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 29 67 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 30 64 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 34 68 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 35 68 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 30 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93
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