459
FXUS64 KMAF 061557
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
957 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (ESPECIALLY IN
THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- AFTER A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, A WARMING
TREND DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ADVANCES AND THE LEE
TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
STRONG IN THE GUADALUPE/ DAVIS MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE CARLSBAD
CAVERNS), PROMPTING A HIGH WIND WARNING BEING ISSUED ONCE AGAIN.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF
WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE DRY GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY FOR MOST DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY, AND
DROPPING SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS 7-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY'S FOR MOST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON SUNDAY, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND OUR
AREA DRY.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
LOWS MONDAY MORNING DIP DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. NEVERTHELESS, SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BY MONDAY
MORNING AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AREAWIDE, AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS THEY TREND UP 2-4 DEGREES
ABOVE SUNDAY'S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TICK UP DAILY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
(WITH SOME HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR/JUST ABOVE 80F THURSDAY IN THE
LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). FOR REFERENCE, THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 12-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY, THOUGH DETAILS REGARDING FRONTAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN (A LOT OF SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES EXISTS WITHIN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND OUR CURRENT HIGH IS
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE). IN ANY CASE, THIS FRONT WILL AT
LEAST KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES! OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 40 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 39 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 48 71 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 44 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 40 57 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 36 61 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 35 63 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 41 61 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 42 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 38 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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