821
FXUS64 KMAF 062301
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY IN THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- AFTER A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, A WARMING
TREND DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO OFF THE BAJA COAST, RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 18Z. AT THE SURFACE, LEESIDE
TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE HAS INDUCED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL ADD A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT
TO TODAY'S HIGHS, WHICH SHOULD TOP OUT A PLEASANT 8-10 F ABOVE
NORMAL.
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE...SLIGHTLY EAST-SOUTHEAT AT
BEST. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, ELEVATED
MIXING, AND TODAY'S HIGHS WILL YIELD WARMER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS...
AROUND 5-10 F ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BUT DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON LOWS.
HOWEVER, IT WILL PUT A DENT IN SUNDAY'S HIGHS, SHAVING AROUND 5-6 F
OFF TODAY'S HIGHS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW, BUT
THEY'LL BE LIGHT, COMBINING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RESIDES ALOFT MONDAY AS A TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE COLD AIR
AT BAY AND ALLOWS US TO SEE A WARMING TREND. MONDAY, WINDS RETURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S. TUESDAY, WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME A
TOUCH BREEZY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT BECOMES DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS STILL WARM
INTO THE 70S. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE EARLY
THURSDAY, WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
KICKS UP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS
THURSDAY WARM UP A FEW DEGREES MORE, WITH 70S FOR MOST AND 80S
SPREADING FURTHER INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHERED IN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS
OF TIMING FOR THIS FRONT, WHETHER IT ARRIVES SOMETIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW, HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DECREASE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BY 05Z-10Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, THEN PERSIST FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 39 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 38 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 47 71 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 44 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 39 56 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 35 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 33 62 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 40 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 41 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 38 63 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page