267
FXUS64 KMAF 071121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY, AND DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS 7-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY'S FOR MOST.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE A FRONT
ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR AMARILLO. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHERLY, AND DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS 7-12 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY'S FOR MOST. LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT'S LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL FOSTER EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING, YIELDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S FOR MOST (EXCEPT 20S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE). PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST WARMS TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR, AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE (LOW 80S IN THE TRANS-
PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
BEGUN TO FAVOR A STRONGER FRONT. AS A RESULT, HIGHS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. AS ALWAYS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE
DATA, AS SOME SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING JUST HOW COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL GET. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL
NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE
START OF THIS PERIOD AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS OF 10-
15KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT TIMES BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT MAF, INK, FST,
AND PEQ BY 00-02Z. WHEREAS CNM AND HOB SEE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY AROUND THE SAME TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 32 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 62 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 70 39 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 56 36 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 63 26 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 61 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 60 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 62 32 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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